September 5, 2021

There’s no increase in numbers or intensity of hurricanes or wildfires






 


Steven Koonin, who was chief sci­en­tist of the Obama En­ergy De­part­ment ar­gues that what the me­dia and politi­cians and ac­tivists say about cli­mate sci­ence has drifted so far out of touch with the ac­tual sci­ence as to be ab­surdly, demon­stra­bly false.


From deeply ex­am­in­ing the world’s en­ergy sys­tem, he also be­came con­vinced that the real cli­mate cri­sis was a cri­sis of po­lit­i­cal and sci­en­tific can­dor: “the world isn’t go­ing to be able to re­duce emis­sions enough to make much dif­fer­ence.”

He points out the weakness and uncertainty in the models, doubting the use­ful­ness of cen­tu­ry­long fore­casts claim­ing to know how 1% shifts in vari­ables will af­fect a global cli­mate that we don’t un­der­stand with any­thing re­sem­bling 1% pre­ci­sion.

He agrees that the world has warmed by 1 de­gree Cel­sius since 1900 and will warm by an­other de­gree this cen­tury, plac­ing him near the mid­dle of the con­sen­sus, but he doesn’t see any­thing that would jus­tify the rapid and whole­sale aban­don­ing of fos­sil fu­els, even if China, In­dia, Brazil, In­done­sia and oth­ers could be dis­suaded from pur­su­ing pros­per­ity.

He’s a fan of ad­vanced nu­clear power even­tu­ally to pro­vide car­bon free base-load power.

But the Green New Deal makes no eco­nomic sense to force.  Every­thing he sees in the sci­ence sug­gests a slow, mod­est ef­fect, not a run­away warm­ing.  Let tech­nology and mar­kets work at their own pace. The cli­mate might con­tinue to change, at a pace that’s hard to per­ceive, but so­ci­eties will adapt. “As a species, we’re very good at adapt­ing.”


But climate financial regulation will not help the climate, will further politicize central banks, and will destroy their precious independence, while forcing financial companies to devise absurdly fictitious climate-risk assessments will ruin financial regulation. https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/07/climate-risk-to-financial-system.html



https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/07/rossi-hansberg-on-effects-of-carbon-tax.html

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