April 10, 2021

It's not too late (for 1st shots first)

 


Through April 8, 2021, the US had purchased enough vaccine for 1.6 million doses of vaccine.

In the Moderna study 2.2% of the participants were excluded over the course of enrollment because they had Covid-19 at time of enrollment.  If you say that 2.2 % of  1.6 million Americans would have been expected to catch Covid-19 over the time we have been vaccinating  you might expect 0.5% of those infected to die.  This means you'd expect around 17,600 deaths out of 1.6 unvaccinated Americans.

With the current practice of giving a second dose shortly after the first dose we have vaccinated around 800,000 people.  With 1.6 million Americans, where we vaccinate 1/2 with a vaccine that is 94% effective, with the practice of giving the second dose shortly after the first dose, we would expect to save ~ 8,272 lives.  A good achievement.

But an even better idea would be to postpone the second dose.  Based on the data from the trials and the experience of the UK the first dose provides arounds 90% efficacy.  If we had vaccinated 1.6 million with only a first dose, postponing the second dose, we would have saved ~7500 more lives.

And 1st shots 1st would also help reduce the spread of the virus in the population having an addition positive effect

Follow the science! 

It's not too late.

There are over 200 million unvaccinated Americans.

If we vaccinate with 1st shots 1st we will save thousands of lives.


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