Steven Koonin, who was chief scientist of the Obama Energy Department argues that what the media and politicians and activists say about climate science has drifted so far out of touch with the actual science as to be absurdly, demonstrably false.
From deeply examining the world’s energy system, he also became convinced that the real climate crisis was a crisis of political and scientific candor: “the world isn’t going to be able to reduce emissions enough to make much difference.”
He points out the weakness and uncertainty in the models, doubting the usefulness of centurylong forecasts claiming to know how 1% shifts in variables will affect a global climate that we don’t understand with anything resembling 1% precision.
He agrees that the world has warmed by 1 degree Celsius since 1900 and will warm by another degree this century, placing him near the middle of the consensus, but he doesn’t see anything that would justify the rapid and wholesale abandoning of fossil fuels, even if China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and others could be dissuaded from pursuing prosperity.
He’s a fan of advanced nuclear power eventually to provide carbon free base-load power.
But the Green New Deal makes no economic sense to force. Everything he sees in the science suggests a slow, modest effect, not a runaway warming. Let technology and markets work at their own pace. The climate might continue to change, at a pace that’s hard to perceive, but societies will adapt. “As a species, we’re very good at adapting.”
But climate financial regulation will not help the climate, will further politicize central banks, and will destroy their precious independence, while forcing financial companies to devise absurdly fictitious climate-risk assessments will ruin financial regulation. https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/07/climate-risk-to-financial-system.html
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/07/rossi-hansberg-on-effects-of-carbon-tax.html
No comments:
Post a Comment